Climate change, fossil fuels and South Africa: background

This page will carry the best resources we know of for understanding the current and likely future impacts of climate change on South Africa, in a global context. Please do make suggestions.

Global context

These sites offer complementary and contextual views of the direction of global emissions trends, and how far they go towards being sufficient to avert the worst of climate change:

Overview

The best single source that we know of for understanding the likely impacts of climate change on South Africa is the CSIR Green Book.

South African government policy on climate has most recently been summarised in its Low Emission Development Strategy (December 2018).

South Africa’s average annual temperatures have increased by at least 1.5 times more than the observed global average (0.65°C) over the past 50 years.

The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, published by the Department of Environmental Affairs in May 2019, outlined the following prospects for South Africa

  • “South Africa is already experiencing significant effects of climate change, particularly as a result of increased temperatures and water variability.” –
  • “The observed rate of warming has been 2°C per century or even higher – more than twice the global rate of temperature increase for the western parts and the northeast,” the department said.
  • “There is evidence that extreme weather events in South Africa are increasing, with heat wave conditions found to be more likely, dry spell durations lengthening slightly, and rainfall intensity increasing.
  • “Climate zones across the country are already shifting, ecosystems and landscapes are being degraded, veld fires are becoming more frequent, and overused natural terrestrial and marine systems are under stress.”
  • If we don’t cut carbon emissions from oil, gas and coal, and land degradation, temperatures are set to increase ‘drastically’, with temperature increases greater than 4°C across South Africa; increases greater than 6°C possible in the western, central and northern interior.
  • If we don’t cut carbon emissions, there will be an increase in the number of heat-wave days and very hot days where these above temperatures will be common or even exceeded.
  • But if we cut emissions, the increase in temperatures in the interior could be kept to between 2.5 to 4°C (still very high)
  • Greater uncertainty around rainfall projections than in temperature projections.
  • With low mitigation, drier conditions overall, and an increase in ‘extreme rainfall events’ in the interior of the country.
  • With high mitigation, “generally wetter conditions over the central and eastern interior,” it said. “Other projections predict generally drier conditions.”
  • Also, an increase in ‘direct wave impacts’ and coastal flooding/inundation; flooding of low-lying areas and erosion; Quadruple burden of disease; Poor housing, infrastructure and service delivery; High water demand – highly problematic as current water usage already exceeds reliable yield; Deteriorating water quality in river systems, water storage reservoirs and groundwater.

Water

Energy systems in South Africa

In most countries, the ways in which we get our energy are a key determinant of national climate change impacts. South Africa is no different. This overview of the need for energy sector transformation in South Africa (pdf) was researched and written by Project 90 by 2030.