Decarbonising South Africa - a roadmap
Decarbonising South Africa’s infrastructure - a roadmap
10 July 2024
This overview was drafted by and edited with the assistance of an FFSA supporter who is an ESCA-registered Pr. Eng., with 12 years work experience in energy efficiency. Comments and possible updates are welcome.
Introduction
FFSA is campaigning to move South Africa’s society and economy away from its dependence on fossil fuels. Large-scale changes of course take years to implement. However, it is possible to begin now. Outlines of the technological changes that will be needed are listed in this document. They are arranged in approximate order of their fossil fuel usage.
We believe that this transition must be driven by very important social, cultural and intellectual changes as well as technological changes – and we aim to write elsewhere on those dimensions of transition. This outline focuses on the technological dimensions of the changes needed.
FFSA welcomes constructive comments and suggestions on this outline. The more people think about and discuss these matters, the closer we get to success.
Some readers may question the absence of hydro-electric power as a viable alternative to fossil fuels. That is because South Africa is not endowed with many suitable rivers, and the best opportunities have already been exploited. Production of large amounts of hydro-electricity requires a big river, falling through a great height. Large-scale hydro is also often problematic for a number of reasons, not least of them being methane production.
Sectoral possibilities
Grid electricity generation: Replace coal fired power stations with solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind, both with energy storage in large battery banks. PV and wind generation has already happened to some extent – according to the CSIR, in 2022 solar and wind provided 7.3 % of South Africa’s grid electricity and we know solar production, especially rooftop, expanded significantly in 2023. At that level, storage of electricity for later use by the grid is of relatively little value – electricity from large solar and wind generators is used as it is produced.
Grid electricity storage: The sun does not shine all the time, nor does wind blow continuously. The need for storage can be eased by balancing provision from wind and solar sources, but as the proportion of solar and wind energy increases, electricity storage becomes first important, and then vital. Both solar and wind, with storage, should be massively expanded because the required technologies are well established and local expertise exists. Large scale battery storage is already a well-established technology. Moreover, battery technology is developing at a rapid rate, which should result in reductions in the cost of large batteries.
Grid electricity generation with storage: Solar thermal power, with thermal storage, is an alternative to PV and battery storage. More use should be made of it. South Africa already has one solar thermal power station. The technology is less advanced than PV and wind, but no great technological challenges seem to exist. (Significant short term progress is possible.) Already deployed technology for thermal energy storage within existing fossil fuel infrastructure could be used to adapt our existing coal power infrastructure for storage purposes, with significant implications for a just energy transition.
Land-based transport: We need to expand public transport options as far as possible, assisted by urban densification and support for walking- and bicycle-friendly towns and cities (longer-term). Despite the dismal overall state of our rail network, there has been progress in rebuilding some commuter lines in SA, e.g., in Cape Town’s Southern Suburbs. Petrol- and diesel-powered vehicles should be electrified. A small beginning has been made, but it can be expanded because several large international manufacturers of electric vehicles exist (some with local representation – e.g. BMW, Nissan), not only for cars, but for buses and trucks too. A welcome trend is that some local companies have begun buying electric vehicles for their fleets.
Residential water heating. Replacement of electric geysers (hot water cylinders) with solar water heaters is well advanced. Heat pumps and (to some degree) on-demand water heaters are additional options offering flexibility and efficiency. Further financial incentives from local, provincial or central government could result in inefficient standard electric geysers almost vanishing within < 10 years. Continuing load shedding would have a similar effect. Significant additional short-term progress is possible.
High temperature heating processes in industry: These are processes which need temperatures > 250 ̊C. Notable examples are smelting of metals, manufacture of cement, bricks, fertilizer, tiles, sanitary ware, steel and glass. In most (or maybe all) cases, fossil fuels could be replaced by hydrogen (H2) and / or ammonia (NH3). The hydrogen and ammonia would have to be manufactured without the use of fossil fuels – by solar and / or wind energy. A significant constraint here (and in the following four sectors) is safe usage and storage of hydrogen and ammonia. Unfortunately, promotion of the hydrogen economy is also too often a rearguard action from the fossil fuel industry, which currently produces hydrogen from fossil fuels. There are encouraging moves towards hydrogen- and carbon-free steel. Significant short term progress is not yet possible.
Lower temperature heating processes in industry: This includes the manufacture of a wide variety of products, e.g., foodstuffs, plastics, textiles, tyres and drying of timber for use in construction. Such heating is mostly done by steam, produced in coal fired boilers (or in smaller applications, electric boilers). If the hazards associated with hydrogen and ammonia can be overcome, these are the obvious replacements. A facilitating factor is that South Africa has at least 2 local manufacturers of steam boilers. Significant short term progress is not yet possible.
Mines with non-electric machines: This will have to wait until the manufacturers of diesel engines for such applications introduce engines not powered by fossil fuels. Although diesel engines are not produced in South Africa, a facilitating factor is that some mining equipment is made locally. Significant short term progress is not yet possible.
Commercial aircraft: This will have to wait until aircraft with non-fossil fuelled engines become commercially available. Electric aircraft exist, but are only practical for pilot training and short-hop passenger transport. None of the manufacturers of large commercial aircraft (e.g. Airbus and Boeing) or the manufacturers of engines for them (e.g. Rolls Royce, GE) have yet developed viable non-fossil fuelled aircraft. With a few minor exceptions, South Africa does not manufacture aircraft or aircraft engines. Significant short term progress is not yet possible.
Shipping: To some extent, this will have to wait until international shipping lines decide to (or are compelled to) introduce ships with non-fossil fuelled engines. However, since close to 40% of global shipping is currently devoted to the transport of fossil fuels themselves, progress here can be greatly accelerated by the reduction of fossil fuel dependence and sales in other sectors. Much of the impact of shipping (and aviation) is driven by overheated supply chains (e.g. rapid delivery of consumer goods) that would never have been established in the first place without artificially low-cost fossil fuels. Significant short term progress is culturally difficult but technically easy.
Building construction: The carbon impact of cement and concrete production is a very significant contributor to climate change, around 8%. However, remarkable research by scientists at UCT indicates that this could be reduced by 76% through “a combination of manufacturing and engineering decisions… without requiring heavy capital investment in alternative manufacturing methods or alternative materials.” In urban areas, energy usage on construction sites is a mix of diesel and electricity. Reductions in diesel usage will have to wait until the manufacturers of mobile construction machines (e.g. bulldozers and excavators) produce models with non-fossil fuelled engines. Some significant short term progress is possible, especially through training and amended practices in the construction industry.
Agriculture: Fossil fuel interests are deeply embedded in this sector, not just producing fuel for farming equipment, but also in the manufacture of synthetic fertilisers and agricultural chemicals. Decarbonisation of agriculture has to begin with a discussion of who the primary beneficiaries should be: at present, agricultural practices are far too often driven by corporate imperatives, not the human rights-based imperative of providing abundant and healthy food to all. This is a very significant and much-contested area for discussion, and deserves a paper of its own. Much may depend on cultural changes, e.g., reducing meat consumption. Significant progress is possible, but will be driven primarily by social and cultural factors, not technological factors.
Road construction: Road construction has multiple climate and environmental impacts, such as the urban heat island effect, and depends on carbon-intensive inputs such as bitumen and concrete. Road building machines (e.g., bulldozers, graders and excavators) will have to wait until the manufacturers of mobile construction machines produce models with non-fossil fuelled engines. Progress can be driven by improved construction techniques, minimising road use through public transport and remote working practices. Significant short term progress is complicated.
Non-electrified rail transport: Complete decarbonisation will have to wait until the manufacturers of diesel electric locomotives decide to produce models that can operate without fossil fuels. Fortunately, in South Africa, much railway transport is already electrified.
If applications 1–4 are achieved, probably about 80 % of fossil fuel use in South Africa will be eliminated.
Likely unfortunate consequences, means of mitigation and possible opportunities
As with all significant economic change, large-scale reduction in fossil fuel usage in South Africa will have some unwanted consequences. The most likely of these, with possible ways of minimising the consequences, are outlined below. Some possible opportunities are also included.
Thereafter, for the sake of completeness, we have included short discussions of the possible effects of the international trend towards reduction in fossil fuel usage on two other large local industries. Unfortunately that trend is mostly beyond South Africa’s control. FFSA hopes that those industries, the state and other stakeholders are working on plans to mitigate the consequences which could result.
In the long term, our country will probably not be able to avoid moving away from fossil fuels. If we do not do more soon, various forms of international pressure will probably eventually force us to change, in a hurry, and in ways which do not suit us.
Industries that may suffer job losses from decarbonisation
The evidence is that moving to a low carbon economy will create more jobs than sticking with the fossil economy, in most instances. For example, one systematic review found that "investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency can deliver more jobs than gas or coal power generation", and that most "national studies largely agree that the most likely outcome over the next few decades is a modest net positive creation of jobs and moderate economic growth."
However, net job creation may be little consolation to those directly affected, hence the considerable attention being given in South Africa to the concept of a Just Energy Transition.
Job losses from ending coal mining: Closing coal-fired power stations will mean that about half the coal mines in South Africa will either have to close, or switch to exports. Coal mining is not very labour-intensive. However, there will still be disruptions in coal-mining areas (mainly in Mpumalanga). Rehabilitation of closed mines (if done) will create some employment, but probably only for a few years at most. Opportunities for a just energy transition in these areas can be driven by deliberately constructing solar and energy storage facilities – and agrivoltaics – alongside existing coal infrastructure. But a just energy transition should definitely also include income support and training, not just for former miners, but for coal-dependent communities. Expansion of other kinds of mining (e.g. manganese, which could be in greater demand, mostly for use in batteries) could have a mitigating effect, assuming that some coal miners are willing to move to the Northern Cape, where most of South Africa’s manganese mines are.
Job losses from closing coal-fired power stations: These facilities require more maintenance than PV or wind power stations. Thus, unfortunately, the elimination of coal will result in job losses (though a switch to thermal energy storage or underground pumped storage could mitigate this).
Reducing oil-refining (including Sasol): Replacement of petrol and diesel powered road vehicles with electric ones will mean no more demand for petrol and a much-reduced demand for diesel. Hence, such a transition is likely to result in the closure of South Africa’s oil refineries and Sasol 1 & 2 at Secunda. Unfortunately, jobs will be lost. However, two of South Africa’s four oil refineries have already closed, apparently for other reasons. Sasol itself will probably survive in some form as a chemical industry producer making a variety of chemical products, including commercial explosives, fertiliser and waxes.
Filling stations and automotive maintenance: Electric vehicles do not need pump attendants / jockeys – recharging is simply a matter of plugging in a cable, and paying. The resulting job losses could be large, given the 140,000 people in the industry, if it is assumed that they will all lose out. However, the relatively long time that electric cars need to charge might in some instances expand the role of service stations as local economy hubs, for retail, food, and parcel delivery. Unlike the average coal miner, power station and oil refinery worker, pump attendants tend to be relatively low skilled. Thus, these job losses will be potentially more socially disruptive than jobs lost in coal mining, power stations and oil refineries, consequences that can and should be mitigated by income support and training opportunities. FFSA proposes a country wide, state subsidised program to provide retrenched pump attendants with the skills needed to work on maintenance and installation of small scale PV systems. Such training programs could be based at the FET colleges.
Reduced need for vehicle maintenance: Electric vehicles need far less maintenance than petrol or diesel ones. Petrol and diesel engines need regular servicing (e.g. every 15 000 km). However, vehicle alternators which charge the battery are similar to electric motors, and alternators survive without attention for the full life of the vehicle. The future is not good for motor and diesel mechanics, and they should be included in just energy transition thinking.
Manufacture of steam boilers: (See # 6.) South Africa has two firms which produce steam boilers for industrial use. Elimination of coal as a fuel for industrial steam raising will mean that they will need to introduce boilers with burners suitable for hydrogen and / or ammonia. However, that should be a relatively easy challenge to overcome. Thus, there may not be significant job losses in that industry.
New industries that could arise
Manufacture of PV panels (not just assembly from imported components), wind turbines, inverters and storage batteries
Zero carbon manufacture of green hydrogen (H2) and green ammonia (NH3)
Manufacture of engines which can run on hydrogen and / or ammonia.
Large local industries which might be affected by international trends away from fossil fuels.
Platinum mining and manufacture of automotive exhaust systems (including catalytic converters): Platinum mining is big in South Africa and a significant proportion of the platinum (and similar metals) mined locally is exported for use in catalytic converters for petrol cars. As electric vehicles become more widespread, the demand for platinum is likely to decrease, and with it employment in platinum mining. However, because almost all platinum mined here is exported, there is very little that can be done locally to stop such a reduction in demand for platinum. However, this might be offset by an increase in the use of platinum in hydrogen electrolysers and fuel cells.
Car assembly and component manufacture: Assembly / manufacture of cars (and automotive components) is a big industry in South Africa. Except for the engine, gearbox and clutch, most of an electric car is the same as a petrol or diesel driven vehicle. Also, most of the car engines, gearboxes and clutches installed in locally made or assembled cars are imported. This industry is essentially controlled by big international companies, and their South African factories usually concentrate on producing one or two models, mostly for export. If these international companies decide to switch local production from petrol and diesel cars to electric ones, the impact on employment may not be significant. However, if these companies decide to discontinue local assembly (which they can easily do), the industry will be devastated and many tens of thousands of jobs will be lost. Unfortunately, there is not much that can be done locally to affect the decisions of these international companies.
Some assumptions
The primary time scale considered is one to two decades.
South Africa’s population and its rate of urbanisation will both continue to increase.
Average personal income will remain approximately constant.
Any political change that occurs will be peaceful.
De-industrialisation will continue, but significant industry will remain.
No significant new industry will be established.
Except for steam boilers, biofuel production and usage (including wood) will remain insignificant.
Usage of biogas and landfill gas will also remain insignificant.
Reductions in / moderations of consumption (aka demand side management) will essentially be limited to users (domestic, agricultural, commercial, industrial and mining) installing solar energy systems (water heating & PV). Small-scale wind energy systems exist, but overall, solar is better, and there are fewer regulatory challenges.
Although there is huge scope for large industrial and mining companies to reduce their energy consumption by process improvements, this will have limited impact. For various reasons, local industry is usually very reluctant to invest in energy saving (significant energy saving without financial investment is almost impossible). However, it may be possible to change this.
